Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 33

Auxerre–Nice

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'NiceS. Diop
27'AuxerreS. Mara
70'AuxerreL. Sinayoko (assist: N. Ahamada)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Auxerre		Nice
12	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	1
0	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
451	Passes	429
358	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Auxerre 1.42 · Nice 1.26. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Auxerre 12 · Nice 10; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

F. Letexier→

3.97

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

102

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.6%: “Auxerre to win”. Second comes “Nice to win” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for Auxerre, 1.21 for Nice.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,279 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Auxerre to win40.6%

Draw28.2%

Nice to win31.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Auxerre lead at half-time37.7%

Level at half-time41.5%

Nice lead at half-time20.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Auxerre ahead or level79.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Nice ahead62.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1279 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Auxerre: at least 11Actual: 15
Nice: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Auxerre: at least 4Actual: 10
Nice: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Auxerre score1.42

Attack: Auxerre score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nice's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nice score1.26

Attack: Nice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Auxerre's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.5%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.