Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 33

Rennes–Paris FC

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Roazhon Park, Rennes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'Paris FCW. Geubbels
74'RennesEsteban Lepaul (assist: Quentin Merlin)
75'RennesD. Coppola (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rennes		Paris FC
14	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
423	Passes	420
331	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rennes 1.91 · Paris FC 1.15. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Rennes 14 · Paris FC 11; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

T. Leonard→

4.11

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.9%: “Rennes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.27 for Rennes, 1.20 for Paris FC.
The highest double chance value is 82.5% (1X — Rennes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,279 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rennes to win61.9%

Draw20.7%

Paris FC to win17.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Rennes lead at half-time38.6%

Level at half-time40.0%

Paris FC lead at half-time21.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Rennes ahead or level78.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Paris FC ahead61.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1279 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rennes: at least 10Actual: 13
Paris FC: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Rennes: at least 6Actual: 8
Paris FC: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rennes score1.91

Attack: Rennes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris FC's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Paris FC score1.15

Attack: Paris FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rennes's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%1–19.4%2–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.