Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 33

Paris Saint Germain–Stade Brestois 29

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

82'Paris Saint GermainD. Doué (assist: L. Hernández)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Stade Brestois 29
23	Shots	3
6	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
13	Corners	2
3	Offsides	3
67%	Possession	33%
691	Passes	338
609	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.64 · Stade Brestois 29 0.61. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 23 · Stade Brestois 29 3; on target 6 and 2.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

J. Brisard→

3.88

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 80.2%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.97 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.90 for Stade Brestois 29.
The highest double chance value is 93.0% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,279 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win80.2%

Draw12.9%

Stade Brestois 29 to win7.0%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time61.3%

Level at half-time31.1%

Stade Brestois 29 lead at half-time7.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain ahead or level92.4%

12 — not level at half-time68.9%

X2 — level or Stade Brestois 29 ahead38.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1279 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris Saint Germain: at least 9Actual: 5
Stade Brestois 29: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Paris Saint Germain: at least 6Actual: 13
Stade Brestois 29: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.64

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score0.61

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–09.4%2–09.3%3–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.