Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 33

Angers–Strasbourg

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa, Angers

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'StrasbourgJ. Enciso (penalty)
70'AngersG. Koyalipou (assist: P. Capelle)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Angers		Strasbourg
11	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
0	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
32%	Possession	68%
270	Passes	616
191	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Angers 1.14 · Strasbourg 1.51. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Angers 11 · Strasbourg 15; on target 4 and 6.
Strasbourg kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

H. Ben El Hadj Salem→

4.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Strasbourg to win”. Second comes “Angers to win” at 35.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Angers, 1.43 for Strasbourg.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,279 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Angers to win35.3%

Draw27.2%

Strasbourg to win37.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Angers lead at half-time14.8%

Level at half-time42.3%

Strasbourg lead at half-time42.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Angers ahead or level57.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Strasbourg ahead85.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1279 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Angers: at least 11Actual: 16
Strasbourg: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Angers: at least 4
Strasbourg: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Angers score1.14

Attack: Angers score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Strasbourg's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Strasbourg score1.51

Attack: Strasbourg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Angers's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–29.3%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.