Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 32

Auxerre–Angers

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'AuxerreS. Mara
45+2'AngersA. Sbaï · red card
61'AuxerreS. Mara (assist: L. Sinayoko)
67'AuxerreL. Sinayoko (assist: S. Mara)
77'AngersG. Koyalipou (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Auxerre		Angers
19	Shots	9
10	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
4	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
507	Passes	387
442	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Auxerre 1.41 · Angers 0.94. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Auxerre 19 · Angers 9; on target 10 and 3.
Auxerre kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

E. Wattellier→

3.05

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.2%: “Auxerre to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Auxerre, 0.90 for Angers.
The highest double chance value is 81.1% (1X — Auxerre win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,274 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Auxerre to win55.2%

Draw26.0%

Angers to win18.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	2

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Auxerre lead at half-time42.0%

Level at half-time43.0%

Angers lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Auxerre ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Angers ahead58.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1274 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Auxerre: at least 11Actual: 12
Angers: at least 11Actual: 2

Corners

Auxerre: at least 4Actual: 4
Angers: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Auxerre score1.41

Attack: Auxerre score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Angers's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Angers score0.94

Attack: Angers score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Auxerre's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–012.1%2–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.