Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 32

Paris Saint Germain–Lorient

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 17%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Paris Saint GermainI. Mbaye
12'LorientP. Pagis (assist: P. Katseris)
62'Paris Saint GermainW. Zaïre-Emery (assist: D. Doué)
78'LorientA. Tosin

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Lorient
24	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
12	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
68%	Possession	32%
619	Passes	291
565	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.37 · Lorient 0.69. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 24 · Lorient 5; on target 6 and 3.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

B. Dechepy→

3.83

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.6%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.48 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.95 for Lorient.
The highest double chance value is 89.0% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,270 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win71.6%

Draw17.4%

Lorient to win11.0%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time42.1%

Level at half-time41.0%

Lorient lead at half-time16.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain ahead or level83.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Lorient ahead57.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1270 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris Saint Germain: at least 10Actual: 9
Lorient: at least 8Actual: 7

Corners

Paris Saint Germain: at least 6Actual: 12
Lorient: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.37

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lorient's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lorient score0.69

Attack: Lorient score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.4%2–010.1%3–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.