Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 32

Nantes–Marseille

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'NantesI. Ganago (assist: M. Abline)
54'NantesR. Cabella (assist: I. Ganago)
58'NantesM. Abline (assist: Mohamed Kaba)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nantes		Marseille
17	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	8
13	Shots inside the box	11
8	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	8
2	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
327	Passes	454
260	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nantes 1.11 · Marseille 1.68. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Nantes 17 · Marseille 16; on target 6 and 8.
Marseille kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

J. Pignard→

4.37

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.0%: “Marseille to win”. Second comes “Nantes to win” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Nantes, 1.83 for Marseille.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,269 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nantes to win25.3%

Draw24.7%

Marseille to win50.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Nantes win or draw50.0%

12 — any result other than a draw75.3%

X2 — draw or Marseille win74.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Nantes lead at half-time20.1%

Level at half-time41.8%

Marseille lead at half-time38.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Nantes ahead or level61.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Marseille ahead79.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1269 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nantes: at least 11Actual: 12
Marseille: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Nantes: at least 3Actual: 7
Marseille: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nantes score1.11

Attack: Nantes score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Marseille's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Marseille score1.68

Attack: Marseille score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Nantes's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%1–210.6%0–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1269 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 137 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.