Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 31

Paris FC–Lille

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'LilleM. Fernandez-Pardo (penalty)
85'Paris FCP. Lees-Melou · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris FC		Lille
7	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	3
4	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
419	Passes	491
345	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris FC 1.17 · Lille 1.57. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Paris FC 7 · Lille 10; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

M. Vernice→

4.08

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.0%: “Lille to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.04 for Paris FC, 1.84 for Lille.
The highest double chance value is 80.3% (X2 — draw or Lille win).
These values were computed from 1,265 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris FC to win19.7%

Draw24.3%

Lille to win56.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	10

6	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Paris FC win or draw44.0%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or Lille win80.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Paris FC lead at half-time27.2%

Level at half-time45.1%

Lille lead at half-time27.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris FC ahead or level72.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Lille ahead72.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1265 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris FC: at least 11Actual: 12
Lille: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Paris FC: at least 3Actual: 7
Lille: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris FC score1.17

Attack: Paris FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lille concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lille score1.57

Attack: Lille score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris FC's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–210.9%0–29.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1265 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 30 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.