Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 31

Le Havre–Metz

4–4

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Océane, Le Havre

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Le HavreM. Samatta
9'MetzG. Kvilitaia (assist: G. Hein)
13'Le HavreY. Kechta
45'MetzG. Hein (penalty)
52'Le HavreY. Zouaoui (penalty)
54'MetzJ. Pandore (assist: N. Mbala)
61'

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Havre		Metz
14	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
348	Passes	392
287	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Havre 1.61 · Metz 1.04. On the pitch: 4-4.
Shots Le Havre 14 · Metz 12; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

F. Letexier→

3.97

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

101

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.4%: “Le Havre to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.99 for Le Havre, 1.01 for Metz.
The highest double chance value is 83.0% (1X — Le Havre win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,265 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Havre to win60.4%

Draw22.6%

Metz to win17.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

F. Doucouré (assist: Issa Soumaré)

85'MetzG. Hein (assist: N. Mbala)

12	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Le Havre win or draw83.0%

12 — any result other than a draw77.4%

X2 — draw or Metz win39.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.6%).

First half

Actual: 2–2

Le Havre lead at half-time36.8%

Level at half-time42.2%

Metz lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Havre ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Metz ahead63.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1265 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Havre: at least 11Actual: 12
Metz: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Le Havre: at least 4Actual: 6
Metz: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Havre score1.61

Attack: Le Havre score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Metz concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Metz score1.04

Attack: Metz score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%2–111.0%2–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1265 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 64 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.