Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 31

Rennes–Nantes

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Roazhon Park, Rennes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'RennesEsteban Lepaul (penalty)
40'NantesI. Ganago (assist: Nicolas Cozza)
90'RennesValentin Rongier

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rennes		Nantes
14	Shots	24
5	Shots on target	8
8	Shots inside the box	21
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	8
5	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
466	Passes	260
393	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rennes 1.93 · Nantes 0.88. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Rennes 14 · Nantes 24; on target 5 and 8.
Rennes kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

B. Bastien→

4.05

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.7%: “Rennes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for Rennes, 0.90 for Nantes.
The highest double chance value is 86.5% (1X — Rennes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,265 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rennes to win65.7%

Draw20.9%

Nantes to win13.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Rennes lead at half-time48.7%

Level at half-time38.3%

Nantes lead at half-time13.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Rennes ahead or level86.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Nantes ahead51.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1265 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rennes: at least 12Actual: 15
Nantes: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Rennes: at least 6Actual: 6
Nantes: at least 2Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rennes score1.93

Attack: Rennes score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Nantes's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nantes score0.88

Attack: Nantes score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rennes's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.3%2–110.9%1–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.