Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 31

Lyon–Auxerre

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'LyonRoman Yaremchuk (assist: Abner Vinicius)
35'AuxerreS. Diomandé
66'LyonCorentin Tolisso (assist: A. Maitland-Niles)
71'LyonRoman Yaremchuk (assist: Corentin Tolisso)
88'AuxerreB. Okoh (assist: S. Diomandé)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lyon		Auxerre
12	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
437	Passes	373
366	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lyon 1.69 · Auxerre 0.92. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Lyon 12 · Auxerre 9; on target 6 and 2.
Lyon kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

R. Buquet→

3.69

yellows per match

0.39

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.9%: “Lyon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.88 for Lyon, 0.96 for Auxerre.
The highest double chance value is 82.6% (1X — Lyon win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,261 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lyon to win58.9%

Draw23.6%

Auxerre to win17.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lyon win or draw82.6%

12 — any result other than a draw76.4%

X2 — draw or Auxerre win41.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Lyon lead at half-time41.2%

Level at half-time43.0%

Auxerre lead at half-time15.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Lyon ahead or level84.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Auxerre ahead58.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1261 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lyon: at least 12Actual: 11
Auxerre: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Lyon: at least 5Actual: 6
Auxerre: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lyon score1.69

Attack: Lyon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Auxerre's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Auxerre score0.92

Attack: Auxerre score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–111.0%2–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1261 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 102 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.