Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 31

Stade Brestois 29–Lens

3–3

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 April 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Stade Brestois 29D. Guindo (assist: J. Chotard)
24'Stade Brestois 29L. Tousart (assist: D. Guindo)
42'Stade Brestois 29J. Dina Ebimbe (assist: L. Ajorque)
60'LensF. Thauvin
64'LensA. Sima (assist: S. Abdulhamid)
90'LensA. Saint-Maximin

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stade Brestois 29		Lens
6	Shots	25
3	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	17
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	6
1	Offsides	3
36%	Possession	64%
338	Passes	594
252	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stade Brestois 29 1.30 · Lens 1.64. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Stade Brestois 29 6 · Lens 25; on target 3 and 7.
Lens kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

S. Frappart→

3.62

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.1%: “Lens to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.94 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.99 for Lens.
The highest double chance value is 84.5% (X2 — draw or Lens win).
These values were computed from 1,260 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stade Brestois 29 to win15.5%

Draw22.4%

Lens to win62.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Stade Brestois 29 lead at half-time24.1%

Level at half-time40.3%

Lens lead at half-time35.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Stade Brestois 29 ahead or level64.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Lens ahead75.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1260 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stade Brestois 29: at least 12Actual: 7
Lens: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Stade Brestois 29: at least 3
Lens: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score1.30

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lens's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lens score1.64

Attack: Lens score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%1–211.0%0–210.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.