Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 26

Paris Saint Germain–Nantes

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 22 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Paris Saint GermainK. Kvaratskhelia (penalty)
37'Paris Saint GermainD. Doué (assist: A. Hakimi)
50'Paris Saint GermainK. Kvaratskhelia (assist: O. Dembele)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Nantes
14	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
70%	Possession	30%
732	Passes	303
664	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.58 · Nantes 0.49. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 14 · Nantes 11; on target 6 and 4.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

C. Turpin→

3.34

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

105

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.2%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.96 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.73 for Nantes.
The highest double chance value is 94.8% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,259 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win83.2%

Draw11.7%

Nantes to win5.2%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time55.3%

Level at half-time35.5%

Nantes lead at half-time9.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain ahead or level90.8%

12 — not level at half-time64.5%

X2 — level or Nantes ahead44.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1259 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris Saint Germain: at least 10Actual: 11
Nantes: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Paris Saint Germain: at least 6Actual: 7
Nantes: at least 2Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.58

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Nantes's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nantes score0.49

Attack: Nantes score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–011.2%2–011.1%3–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.