Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 30

Paris Saint Germain–Lyon

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 10%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'LyonEndrick (assist: Afonso Moreira)
18'LyonAfonso Moreira (assist: Endrick)
90'Paris Saint GermainK. Kvaratskhelia (assist: Fabián Ruiz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Lyon
23	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	5
17	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
13	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
77%	Possession	23%
793	Passes	245
734	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.23 · Lyon 0.79. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 23 · Lyon 6; on target 6 and 5.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (77%).

Referee

J. Brisard→

3.86

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.8%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.47 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.89 for Lyon.
The highest double chance value is 89.9% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,258 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win72.8%

Draw17.1%

Lyon to win10.1%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

5	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time37.4%

Level at half-time42.9%

Lyon lead at half-time19.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain ahead or level80.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Lyon ahead62.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1258 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris Saint Germain: at least 10Actual: 10
Lyon: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Paris Saint Germain: at least 5Actual: 13
Lyon: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.23

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lyon score0.79

Attack: Lyon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.8%2–110.4%3–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.