Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 28

Le Havre–Auxerre

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Océane, Le Havre

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'AuxerreL. Sinayoko (assist: D. Namaso)
23'Le HavreS. Ebonog (assist: Issa Soumaré)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Havre		Auxerre
10	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	5
3	Offsides	3
53%	Possession	47%
396	Passes	361
320	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Havre 1.29 · Auxerre 1.12. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Le Havre 10 · Auxerre 12; on target 3 and 2.

Referee

B. Millot→

3.83

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.4%: “Le Havre to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Le Havre, 1.05 for Auxerre.
The highest double chance value is 69.8% (1X — Le Havre win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,239 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Havre to win39.4%

Draw30.5%

Auxerre to win30.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Le Havre lead at half-time22.6%

Level at half-time45.9%

Auxerre lead at half-time31.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Havre ahead or level68.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Auxerre ahead77.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1239 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Havre: at least 12Actual: 16
Auxerre: at least 12Actual: 21

Corners

Le Havre: at least 4Actual: 5
Auxerre: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Havre score1.29

Attack: Le Havre score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Auxerre's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Auxerre score1.12

Attack: Auxerre score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–011.8%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.