Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 28

Lille–Lens

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 19:05
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

44'LilleH. Haraldsson (assist: M. Fernandez-Pardo)
49'LilleFélix Correia
58'LilleM. Fernandez-Pardo (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lille		Lens
13	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
469	Passes	371
397	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lille 1.47 · Lens 1.32. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Lille 13 · Lens 5; on target 7 and 1.
Lille kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

F. Letexier→

3.99

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.3%: “Lens to win”. Second comes “Lille to win” at 33.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Lille, 1.45 for Lens.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,237 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lille to win33.3%

Draw27.4%

Lens to win39.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Lille lead at half-time25.5%

Level at half-time44.9%

Lens lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Lille ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Lens ahead74.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1237 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lille: at least 10Actual: 9
Lens: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Lille: at least 4Actual: 3
Lens: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lille score1.47

Attack: Lille score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lens's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lens score1.32

Attack: Lens score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Lille concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–29.5%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.