Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 28

Stade Brestois 29–Rennes

3–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Stade Brestois 29J. Dina Ebimbe (assist: L. Ajorque)
20'RennesLudovic Blas (assist: Quentin Merlin)
34'RennesEsteban Lepaul (penalty)
57'Stade Brestois 29J. Dina Ebimbe (assist: B. Locko)
63'RennesB. Embolo
70'Stade Brestois 29R. Labeau Lascary

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stade Brestois 29		Rennes
10	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	7
2	Offsides	3
40%	Possession	60%
315	Passes	503
240	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stade Brestois 29 1.47 · Rennes 1.34. On the pitch: 3-4.
Shots Stade Brestois 29 10 · Rennes 15; on target 4 and 7.
Rennes kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

M. Bollengier→

3.56

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “Rennes to win”. Second comes “Stade Brestois 29 to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.45 for Rennes.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,236 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stade Brestois 29 to win29.3%

Draw28.0%

Rennes to win42.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Stade Brestois 29 lead at half-time25.1%

Level at half-time40.9%

Rennes lead at half-time34.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Stade Brestois 29 ahead or level66.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Rennes ahead74.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1236 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stade Brestois 29: at least 11Actual: 13
Rennes: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Stade Brestois 29: at least 4Actual: 3
Rennes: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score1.47

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rennes's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rennes score1.34

Attack: Rennes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.8%0–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.