Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 28

Paris Saint Germain–Toulouse

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Friday, 3 April 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Paris Saint GermainO. Dembele
27'ToulouseR. Nicolaisen (assist: D. Sidibe)
33'Paris Saint GermainO. Dembele (assist: K. Kvaratskhelia)
90'Paris Saint GermainGonçalo Ramos (assist: N. Mendes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Toulouse
17	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	4
72%	Possession	28%
814	Passes	314
737	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.15 · Toulouse 0.75. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 17 · Toulouse 5; on target 7 and 1.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

E. Wattellier→

3.11

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.3%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.55 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.84 for Toulouse.
The highest double chance value is 91.3% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,234 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win75.3%

Draw16.0%

Toulouse to win8.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

4	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time50.5%

Level at half-time38.4%

Toulouse lead at half-time11.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain ahead or level88.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Toulouse ahead49.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1234 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris Saint Germain: at least 10Actual: 4
Toulouse: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Paris Saint Germain: at least 5Actual: 5
Toulouse: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.15

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 62% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Toulouse's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Toulouse score0.75

Attack: Toulouse score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.2%2–110.1%3–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.