Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 27

Paris FC–Le Havre

3–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'Paris FCC. Immobile (assist: D. Coppola)
33'Paris FCA. Seko (own goal)
55'Paris FCR. Matondo · red card
61'Le HavreR. Ndiaye (assist: S. Boufal)
86'Paris FCA. Gory (assist: P. Lees-Melou)
90'Le HavreG. Kyeremeh

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris FC		Le Havre
15	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	6
14	Shots inside the box	14
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	5
5	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
263	Passes	369
191	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris FC 1.48 · Le Havre 1.10. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Paris FC 15 · Le Havre 20; on target 4 and 6.
Le Havre kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

C. Turpin→

3.38

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

102

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.8%: “Paris FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Paris FC, 1.04 for Le Havre.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (1X — Paris FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,230 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris FC to win45.8%

Draw28.4%

Le Havre to win25.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Paris FC lead at half-time34.3%

Level at half-time45.1%

Le Havre lead at half-time20.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris FC ahead or level79.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or Le Havre ahead65.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1230 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris FC: at least 11Actual: 9
Le Havre: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Paris FC: at least 4Actual: 9
Le Havre: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris FC score1.48

Attack: Paris FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Le Havre score1.10

Attack: Le Havre score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Paris FC's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–011.2%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.