Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 27

Marseille–Lille

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Orange Vélodrome, Marseille

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'MarseilleE. Nwaneri (assist: I. Paixao)
49'LilleThomas Meunier
86'LilleO. Giroud (assist: Thomas Meunier)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Marseille		Lille
14	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
534	Passes	444
476	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Marseille 1.70 · Lille 1.21. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Marseille 14 · Lille 11; on target 3 and 4.
Marseille kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

B. Bastien→

4.04

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.1%: “Marseille to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for Marseille, 1.09 for Lille.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (1X — Marseille win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,230 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Marseille to win51.1%

Draw25.9%

Lille to win23.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Marseille lead at half-time33.8%

Level at half-time43.8%

Lille lead at half-time22.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Marseille ahead or level77.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Lille ahead66.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1230 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Marseille: at least 12Actual: 8
Lille: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Marseille: at least 4Actual: 6
Lille: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Marseille score1.70

Attack: Marseille score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Lille concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lille score1.21

Attack: Lille score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Marseille's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.7%1–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.