Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 26

Lorient–Lens

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 March 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'LorientB. Dieng
48'LensO. Edouard (assist: M. Sangaré)
65'LorientA. Tosin (assist: K. Kouassi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lorient		Lens
6	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	15
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	10
1	Offsides	0
34%	Possession	66%
339	Passes	621
260	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lorient 1.24 · Lens 1.54. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Lorient 6 · Lens 20; on target 3 and 6.
Lens kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

T. Leonard→

4.00

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.9%: “Lens to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.99 for Lorient, 1.86 for Lens.
The highest double chance value is 81.8% (X2 — draw or Lens win).
These values were computed from 1,218 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lorient to win18.2%

Draw24.0%

Lens to win57.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lorient win or draw42.1%

12 — any result other than a draw76.0%

X2 — draw or Lens win81.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Lorient lead at half-time24.6%

Level at half-time42.9%

Lens lead at half-time32.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Lorient ahead or level67.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Lens ahead75.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1218 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lorient: at least 10Actual: 6
Lens: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Lorient: at least 3Actual: 1
Lens: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lorient score1.24

Attack: Lorient score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lens concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lens score1.54

Attack: Lens score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Lorient's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%1–211.0%0–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1218 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 97 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.