Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 25

Stade Brestois 29–Le Havre

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 March 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Stade Brestois 29R. Del Castillo (assist: K. Lala)
71'Stade Brestois 29L. Ajorque (assist: K. Doumbia)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stade Brestois 29		Le Havre
11	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	0
7	Shots inside the box	11
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
337	Passes	484
252	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stade Brestois 29 1.71 · Le Havre 1.00. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Stade Brestois 29 11 · Le Havre 14; on target 2 and 0.
Le Havre kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

B. Bastien→

4.09

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.0%: “Stade Brestois 29 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Stade Brestois 29, 0.93 for Le Havre.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (1X — Stade Brestois 29 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,213 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stade Brestois 29 to win50.0%

Draw28.0%

Le Havre to win22.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Stade Brestois 29 lead at half-time40.2%

Level at half-time41.2%

Le Havre lead at half-time18.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Stade Brestois 29 ahead or level81.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Le Havre ahead59.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1213 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stade Brestois 29: at least 13Actual: 15
Le Havre: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Stade Brestois 29: at least 4Actual: 1
Le Havre: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score1.71

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Le Havre score1.00

Attack: Le Havre score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–012.6%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.