Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 25

Paris Saint Germain–Monaco

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 6 March 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 12%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'MonacoM. Akliouche (assist: F. Balogun)
55'MonacoA. Golovin
71'Paris Saint GermainB. Barcola (assist: A. Hakimi)
73'MonacoF. Balogun (assist: M. Akliouche)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Monaco
20	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	6
14	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
72%	Possession	28%
704	Passes	269
633	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.26 · Monaco 0.89. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 20 · Monaco 11; on target 6 and 6.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

R. Buquet→

3.75

yellows per match

0.41

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.7%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.58 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.06 for Monaco.
The highest double chance value is 88.0% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,208 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win70.7%

Draw17.3%

Monaco to win12.0%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time49.3%

Level at half-time38.4%

Monaco lead at half-time12.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain ahead or level87.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Monaco ahead50.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1208 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris Saint Germain: at least 10Actual: 12
Monaco: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Paris Saint Germain: at least 4Actual: 7
Monaco: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.26

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 59% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Monaco's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Monaco score0.89

Attack: Monaco score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.2%3–18.8%2–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.