Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 24

Monaco–Angers

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Louis II, Monaco

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'MonacoF. Balogun
62'MonacoS. Adingra (assist: A. Golovin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Monaco		Angers
10	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
72%	Possession	28%
778	Passes	294
699	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Monaco 2.09 · Angers 0.79. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Monaco 10 · Angers 6; on target 4 and 2.
Monaco kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

G. Paradis→

4.01

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.6%: “Monaco to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.18 for Monaco, 0.88 for Angers.
The highest double chance value is 87.6% (1X — Monaco win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,201 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Monaco to win67.6%

Draw20.0%

Angers to win12.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Monaco win or draw87.6%

12 — any result other than a draw80.0%

X2 — draw or Angers win32.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Monaco lead at half-time40.0%

Level at half-time42.9%

Angers lead at half-time17.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Monaco ahead or level82.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Angers ahead60.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1201 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Monaco: at least 12Actual: 9
Angers: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Monaco: at least 4Actual: 5
Angers: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Monaco score2.09

Attack: Monaco score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Angers's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Angers score0.79

Attack: Angers score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Monaco's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.4%2–110.8%1–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1201 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 95 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.