Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 23

Nantes–Le Havre

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 February 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'NantesY. Zouaoui (own goal)
34'NantesI. Ganago (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nantes		Le Havre
9	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	6
0	Offsides	4
29%	Possession	71%
207	Passes	526
132	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nantes 1.35 · Le Havre 1.20. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Nantes 9 · Le Havre 6; on target 2 and 1.
Le Havre kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

J. Pignard→

4.40

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.3%: “Nantes to win”. Second comes “Le Havre to win” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Nantes, 1.15 for Le Havre.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,195 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nantes to win39.3%

Draw29.3%

Le Havre to win31.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Nantes lead at half-time28.5%

Level at half-time43.8%

Le Havre lead at half-time27.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Nantes ahead or level72.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Le Havre ahead71.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1195 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nantes: at least 12Actual: 17
Le Havre: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Nantes: at least 4Actual: 5
Le Havre: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nantes score1.35

Attack: Nantes score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Le Havre score1.20

Attack: Le Havre score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Nantes's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–010.4%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.