Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 23

Paris Saint Germain–Metz

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 February 2026 at 20:05
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Paris Saint GermainD. Doué (assist: W. Zaïre-Emery)
45'Paris Saint GermainB. Barcola (assist: Gonçalo Ramos)
77'Paris Saint GermainGonçalo Ramos (assist: L. Hernández)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Metz
17	Shots	3
7	Shots on target	0
11	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	1
3	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
695	Passes	333
647	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 3.00 · Metz 0.43. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 17 · Metz 3; on target 7 and 0.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

A. Kherradji→

3.71

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 84.6%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 10.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.04 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.70 for Metz.
The highest double chance value is 95.4% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,193 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win84.6%

Draw10.8%

Metz to win4.6%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time77.0%

Level at half-time22.6%

Metz lead at half-time0.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain ahead or level99.5%

12 — not level at half-time77.4%

X2 — level or Metz ahead23.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1193 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris Saint Germain: at least 9Actual: 9
Metz: at least 9Actual: 15

Corners

Paris Saint Germain: at least 5Actual: 4
Metz: at least 2Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score3.00

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 57% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Metz concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 3.00 goals.

How many goals Metz score0.43

Attack: Metz score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–011.6%2–011.1%4–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.