Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 23

Stade Brestois 29–Marseille

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 20 February 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Stade Brestois 29L. Ajorque
29'Stade Brestois 29L. Ajorque (assist: H. Magnetti)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stade Brestois 29		Marseille
12	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
32%	Possession	68%
304	Passes	637
226	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stade Brestois 29 1.48 · Marseille 1.60. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Stade Brestois 29 12 · Marseille 17; on target 4 and 4.
Marseille kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

R. Lissorgue→

3.84

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.7%: “Marseille to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.77 for Marseille.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (X2 — draw or Marseille win).
These values were computed from 1,190 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stade Brestois 29 to win24.1%

Draw25.1%

Marseille to win50.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Stade Brestois 29 lead at half-time18.0%

Level at half-time37.8%

Marseille lead at half-time44.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Stade Brestois 29 ahead or level55.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Marseille ahead82.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1190 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stade Brestois 29: at least 11Actual: 10
Marseille: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Stade Brestois 29: at least 3Actual: 3
Marseille: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score1.48

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Marseille's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Marseille score1.60

Attack: Marseille score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–210.7%0–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.