Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 22

Metz–Auxerre

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 February 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'AuxerreSadibou Sané (own goal)
76'AuxerreU. Mboula (own goal)
89'AuxerreK. Danois (assist: L. Sinayoko)
90'MetzN. Mbala (assist: A. Toure)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Metz		Auxerre
13	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
62%	Possession	38%
553	Passes	337
481	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Metz 1.31 · Auxerre 1.30. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Metz 13 · Auxerre 14; on target 4 and 3.
Metz kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

M. Bollengier→

3.51

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.9%: “Auxerre to win”. Second comes “Metz to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for Metz, 1.29 for Auxerre.
The highest double chance value is 70.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,187 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Metz to win31.7%

Draw29.4%

Auxerre to win38.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Metz lead at half-time20.1%

Level at half-time42.6%

Auxerre lead at half-time37.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Metz ahead or level62.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Auxerre ahead79.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1187 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Metz: at least 11Actual: 13
Auxerre: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Metz: at least 4Actual: 4
Auxerre: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Metz score1.31

Attack: Metz score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Auxerre's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Auxerre score1.30

Attack: Auxerre score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Metz concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%0–110.5%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.