Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 22

Paris FC–Lens

0–5

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 20:05
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris FC		Lens
11	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	6
3	Shots inside the box	17
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	6
58%	Possession	42%
588	Passes	415
501	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris FC 1.24 · Lens 1.54. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Paris FC 11 · Lens 17; on target 6 and 6.
Paris FC kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

B. Dechepy→

3.82

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.3%: “Lens to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Paris FC, 1.61 for Lens.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (X2 — draw or Lens win).
These values were computed from 1,185 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris FC to win24.1%

Draw26.6%

Lens to win49.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Paris FC lead at half-time20.8%

Level at half-time42.2%

Lens lead at half-time37.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris FC ahead or level62.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Lens ahead79.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1185 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris FC: at least 11Actual: 13
Lens: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Paris FC: at least 3Actual: 3
Lens: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris FC score1.24

Attack: Paris FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lens concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lens score1.54

Attack: Lens score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Paris FC's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–210.5%0–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.