Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 21

Paris Saint Germain–Marseille

5–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 8 February 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Paris Saint GermainO. Dembele (assist: N. Mendes)
37'Paris Saint GermainO. Dembele (assist: S. Mayulu)
64'Paris Saint GermainFacundo Medina (own goal)
66'Paris Saint GermainK. Kvaratskhelia (assist: O. Dembele)
74'Paris Saint GermainLee Kang-In (assist: S. Mayulu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Marseille
22	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	3
20	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
548	Passes	395
491	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.05 · Marseille 1.06. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 22 · Marseille 9; on target 7 and 3.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

W. Delajod→

3.68

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.2%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.36 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.08 for Marseille.
The highest double chance value is 85.6% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,180 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win66.2%

Draw19.4%

Marseille to win14.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time38.4%

Level at half-time40.6%

Marseille lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Marseille ahead61.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1180 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris Saint Germain: at least 9Actual: 11
Marseille: at least 9Actual: 18

Corners

Paris Saint Germain: at least 4Actual: 5
Marseille: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.05

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 50% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Marseille's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Marseille score1.06

Attack: Marseille score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.06 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%1–19.0%2–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.