Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 21

Stade Brestois 29–Lorient

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'Stade Brestois 29R. Labeau Lascary
77'Stade Brestois 29L. Ajorque

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stade Brestois 29		Lorient
12	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
360	Passes	515
281	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stade Brestois 29 1.53 · Lorient 1.24. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Stade Brestois 29 12 · Lorient 13; on target 5 and 2.
Lorient kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

G. Angoula→

3.02

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “Stade Brestois 29 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.09 for Lorient.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (1X — Stade Brestois 29 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,174 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stade Brestois 29 to win41.6%

Draw29.2%

Lorient to win29.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Stade Brestois 29 lead at half-time27.5%

Level at half-time41.1%

Lorient lead at half-time31.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Stade Brestois 29 ahead or level68.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Lorient ahead72.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1174 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stade Brestois 29: at least 14Actual: 11
Lorient: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Stade Brestois 29: at least 4Actual: 7
Lorient: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score1.53

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lorient's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lorient score1.24

Attack: Lorient score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.9%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.