Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 21

Lens–Rennes

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'RennesEsteban Lepaul (assist: A. Nordin)
41'LensO. Edouard (assist: R. Aguilar)
54'LensR. Aguilar (assist: F. Thauvin)
56'LensR. Aguilar · red card
78'LensA. Saint-Maximin (assist: R. Risser)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lens		Rennes
9	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	1
4	Shots inside the box	9
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
432	Passes	398
365	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lens 1.85 · Rennes 1.10. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Lens 9 · Rennes 14; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

J. Pignard→

4.38

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.2%: “Lens to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.13 for Lens, 1.10 for Rennes.
The highest double chance value is 82.8% (1X — Lens win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,173 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lens to win61.2%

Draw21.6%

Rennes to win17.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	17

4	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Lens lead at half-time35.9%

Level at half-time42.3%

Rennes lead at half-time21.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Lens ahead or level78.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Rennes ahead64.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1173 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lens: at least 12Actual: 13
Rennes: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Lens: at least 5Actual: 4
Rennes: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lens score1.85

Attack: Lens score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Rennes's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rennes score1.10

Attack: Rennes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lens concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.3%2–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.