Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 21

Metz–Lille

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 6 February 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Metz		Lille
6	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	2
2	Shots inside the box	12
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
318	Passes	442
254	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Metz 1.15 · Lille 1.80. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Metz 6 · Lille 16; on target 2 and 2.
Lille kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

G. Paradis→

4.03

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.2%: “Lille to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.84 for Metz, 1.93 for Lille.
The highest double chance value is 85.7% (X2 — draw or Lille win).
These values were computed from 1,172 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Metz to win14.3%

Draw22.6%

Lille to win63.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Metz win or draw36.8%

12 — any result other than a draw77.4%

X2 — draw or Lille win85.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Metz lead at half-time15.6%

Level at half-time38.7%

Lille lead at half-time45.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Metz ahead or level54.3%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or Lille ahead84.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1172 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Metz: at least 11Actual: 12
Lille: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Metz: at least 3Actual: 1
Lille: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.6%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Metz score1.15

Attack: Metz score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lille's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lille score1.80

Attack: Lille score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Metz concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–212.0%1–111.5%0–111.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1172 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 54 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.