Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 20

Angers–Metz

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 February 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa, Angers

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'MetzJ. Gbamin · red card
25'AngersL. Mouton (assist: C. Arcus)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Angers		Metz
17	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	0
12	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
666	Passes	328
613	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Angers 1.56 · Metz 1.18. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Angers 17 · Metz 5; on target 7 and 0.
Angers kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

B. Millot→

3.84

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.6%: “Angers to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Angers, 1.06 for Metz.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (1X — Angers win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,168 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Angers to win44.6%

Draw28.6%

Metz to win26.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Angers lead at half-time35.7%

Level at half-time41.6%

Metz lead at half-time22.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Angers ahead or level77.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Metz ahead64.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1168 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Angers: at least 10Actual: 11
Metz: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Angers: at least 4Actual: 4
Metz: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Angers score1.56

Attack: Angers score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Metz concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Metz score1.18

Attack: Metz score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Angers's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–011.1%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.