Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 19

Paris FC–Angers

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 25 January 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris FC		Angers
8	Shots	7
1	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
624	Passes	365
545	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris FC 1.72 · Angers 1.04. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Paris FC 8 · Angers 7; on target 1 and 1.
Paris FC kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

T. Leonard→

5.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.1%: “Paris FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Paris FC, 0.89 for Angers.
The highest double chance value is 79.0% (1X — Paris FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,159 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris FC to win51.1%

Draw27.8%

Angers to win21.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Paris FC lead at half-time34.6%

Level at half-time42.6%

Angers lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris FC ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Angers ahead65.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1159 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris FC: at least 10Actual: 14
Angers: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Paris FC: at least 4Actual: 2
Angers: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris FC score1.72

Attack: Paris FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Angers's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Angers score1.04

Attack: Angers score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Paris FC's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–013.0%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.