Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 19

Le Havre–Monaco

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 24 January 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Océane, Le Havre

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Havre		Monaco
7	Shots	10
1	Shots on target	2
3	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	6
1	Offsides	5
47%	Possession	53%
349	Passes	402
266	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Havre 1.34 · Monaco 1.67. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Le Havre 7 · Monaco 10; on target 1 and 2.

Referee

M. Bollengier→

3.52

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.5%: “Monaco to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Le Havre, 1.88 for Monaco.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (X2 — draw or Monaco win).
These values were computed from 1,156 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Havre to win22.3%

Draw24.2%

Monaco to win53.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	20

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Le Havre win or draw46.5%

12 — any result other than a draw75.8%

X2 — draw or Monaco win77.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Le Havre lead at half-time24.1%

Level at half-time44.5%

Monaco lead at half-time31.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Havre ahead or level68.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Monaco ahead75.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1156 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Havre: at least 12Actual: 9
Monaco: at least 12Actual: 20

Corners

Le Havre: at least 3Actual: 5
Monaco: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Havre score1.34

Attack: Le Havre score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Monaco's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Monaco score1.67

Attack: Monaco score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%1–210.8%0–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1156 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 86 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.