Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 18

Toulouse–Nice

5–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadium Municipal, Toulouse

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'ToulouseS. Hidalgo (assist: A. Donnum)
45'ToulouseF. Magri (assist: Y. Gboho)
49'NiceE. Wahi
55'ToulouseS. Hidalgo (assist: F. Magri)
74'ToulouseC. Cásseres
80'ToulouseJulián Vignolo

Match statistics

Match statistics
Toulouse		Nice
22	Shots	15
10	Shots on target	6
17	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
387	Passes	516
323	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Toulouse 1.63 · Nice 1.12. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Toulouse 22 · Nice 15; on target 10 and 6.
Nice kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

G. Angoula→

3.02

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.8%: “Toulouse to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Toulouse, 1.08 for Nice.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (1X — Toulouse win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,148 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Toulouse to win48.8%

Draw26.9%

Nice to win24.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Toulouse lead at half-time24.5%

Level at half-time42.4%

Nice lead at half-time33.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Toulouse ahead or level66.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Nice ahead75.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1148 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Toulouse: at least 12Actual: 12
Nice: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Toulouse: at least 4Actual: 6
Nice: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Toulouse score1.63

Attack: Toulouse score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nice's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nice score1.12

Attack: Nice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Toulouse concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.4%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.