Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 18

Paris Saint Germain–Lille

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 16 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Paris Saint GermainO. Dembele (assist: Vitinha)
64'Paris Saint GermainO. Dembele (assist: D. Doué)
90'Paris Saint GermainB. Barcola

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Lille
13	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
705	Passes	436
645	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.10 · Lille 0.91. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 13 · Lille 7; on target 7 and 4.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

J. Brisard→

3.82

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.3%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.60 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.87 for Lille.
The highest double chance value is 91.1% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,146 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win75.3%

Draw15.8%

Lille to win8.9%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time41.9%

Level at half-time41.5%

Lille lead at half-time16.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain ahead or level83.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Lille ahead58.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1146 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris Saint Germain: at least 10Actual: 14
Lille: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

Paris Saint Germain: at least 5Actual: 4
Lille: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.10

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Lille's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lille score0.91

Attack: Lille score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.7%2–110.0%3–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.