Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 17

Stade Brestois 29–Auxerre

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 4 January 2026 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'Stade Brestois 29L. Ajorque (assist: R. Labeau Lascary)
79'Stade Brestois 29J. Chotard (assist: L. Ajorque)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stade Brestois 29		Auxerre
11	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
451	Passes	450
369	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stade Brestois 29 1.67 · Auxerre 1.13. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Stade Brestois 29 11 · Auxerre 10; on target 4 and 1.

Referee

J. Stinat→

3.66

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.6%: “Stade Brestois 29 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Stade Brestois 29, 0.97 for Auxerre.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (1X — Stade Brestois 29 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,141 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stade Brestois 29 to win49.6%

Draw27.6%

Auxerre to win22.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Stade Brestois 29 lead at half-time30.9%

Level at half-time41.0%

Auxerre lead at half-time28.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Stade Brestois 29 ahead or level71.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Auxerre ahead69.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1141 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stade Brestois 29: at least 12Actual: 16
Auxerre: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Stade Brestois 29: at least 4Actual: 7
Auxerre: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score1.67

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Auxerre's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Auxerre score1.13

Attack: Auxerre score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–011.8%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.