Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 15

Lorient–Lyon

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'LorientP. Pagis
42'LyonA. Maitland-Niles · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lorient		Lyon
14	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
1	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
40%	Possession	60%
300	Passes	438
236	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lorient 1.35 · Lyon 1.57. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Lorient 14 · Lyon 7; on target 6 and 4.
Lyon kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Mathieu Vernice, France→

6.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.5%: “Lyon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Lorient, 1.48 for Lyon.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (X2 — draw or Lyon win).
These values were computed from 1,126 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lorient to win25.5%

Draw28.0%

Lyon to win46.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Lorient lead at half-time23.7%

Level at half-time42.8%

Lyon lead at half-time33.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Lorient ahead or level66.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Lyon ahead76.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1126 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lorient: at least 10Actual: 12
Lyon: at least 13Actual: 21

Corners

Lorient: at least 4Actual: 1
Lyon: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lorient score1.35

Attack: Lorient score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lyon's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lyon score1.57

Attack: Lyon score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Lorient's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%0–111.0%1–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.