Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 15

Le Havre–Paris FC

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Océane, Le Havre

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Havre		Paris FC
13	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
389	Passes	515
328	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Havre 1.53 · Paris FC 1.33. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Le Havre 13 · Paris FC 13; on target 2 and 2.
Paris FC kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Ruddy Buquet, France→

3.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.9%: “Paris FC to win”. Second comes “Le Havre to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Le Havre, 1.28 for Paris FC.
The highest double chance value is 71.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,124 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Havre to win34.1%

Draw29.0%

Paris FC to win36.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Le Havre lead at half-time24.5%

Level at half-time41.8%

Paris FC lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Havre ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Paris FC ahead75.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1124 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Havre: at least 11Actual: 10
Paris FC: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Le Havre: at least 4Actual: 7
Paris FC: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Havre score1.53

Attack: Le Havre score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Paris FC's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Paris FC score1.33

Attack: Paris FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–19.5%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.