Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 15

Auxerre–Metz

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

36'AuxerreL. Sinayoko (penalty)
39'AuxerreO. El Azzouzi (assist: S. Mara)
45'MetzG. Hein
89'AuxerreK. Danois (assist: D. Namaso)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Auxerre		Metz
14	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
39%	Possession	61%
340	Passes	545
285	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Auxerre 1.66 · Metz 1.10. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Auxerre 14 · Metz 5; on target 7 and 3.
Metz kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Eric Wattellier, France→

3.80

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.7%: “Auxerre to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Auxerre, 1.07 for Metz.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (1X — Auxerre win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,124 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Auxerre to win47.7%

Draw27.4%

Metz to win24.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Auxerre lead at half-time41.0%

Level at half-time43.2%

Metz lead at half-time15.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Auxerre ahead or level84.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Metz ahead59.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1124 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Auxerre: at least 11Actual: 10
Metz: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Auxerre: at least 4Actual: 5
Metz: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Auxerre score1.66

Attack: Auxerre score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Metz concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Metz score1.10

Attack: Metz score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Auxerre's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–010.5%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.