Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 15

Paris Saint Germain–Rennes

5–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 20:05
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Paris Saint GermainK. Kvaratskhelia (assist: L. Hernández)
39'Paris Saint GermainS. Mayulu (assist: J. Neves)
67'Paris Saint GermainK. Kvaratskhelia (assist: S. Mayulu)
74'RennesJ. Jacquet · red card
88'Paris Saint GermainI. Mbaye (assist: Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha)
90'Paris Saint Germain

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Rennes
20	Shots	6
9	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	6
0	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
715	Passes	355
658	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.34 · Rennes 0.81. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 20 · Rennes 6; on target 9 and 2.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Marc Bollengier, France→

5.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.3%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.73 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.97 for Rennes.
The highest double chance value is 90.6% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,122 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win75.3%

Draw15.3%

Rennes to win9.4%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	5

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time46.9%

Level at half-time38.8%

Rennes lead at half-time14.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain ahead or level85.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Rennes ahead53.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1122 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris Saint Germain: at least 10Actual: 9
Rennes: at least 10Actual: 5

Corners

Paris Saint Germain: at least 5Actual: 8
Rennes: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.34

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score above the league average (50% more).

Opponent's defence: Rennes's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rennes score0.81

Attack: Rennes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.8%2–09.3%3–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.