Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 15

Lille–Marseille

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 5 December 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'LilleE. Mbappé (assist: N. Bentaleb)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lille		Marseille
5	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
423	Passes	570
352	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lille 1.59 · Marseille 1.42. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Lille 5 · Marseille 6; on target 2 and 2.
Marseille kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Jérôme Brisard, France→

4.67

yellows per match

0.56

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Lille to win”. Second comes “Marseille to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Lille, 1.37 for Marseille.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,119 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lille to win40.7%

Draw26.7%

Marseille to win32.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lille win or draw67.4%

12 — any result other than a draw73.3%

X2 — draw or Marseille win59.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Lille lead at half-time25.5%

Level at half-time42.9%

Marseille lead at half-time31.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Lille ahead or level68.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Marseille ahead74.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1119 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lille: at least 10Actual: 9
Marseille: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Lille: at least 4Actual: 2
Marseille: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals56.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lille score1.59

Attack: Lille score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Marseille concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Marseille score1.42

Attack: Marseille score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Lille concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–19.7%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1119 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 120 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.