Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 14

Le Havre–Lille

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Océane, Le Havre

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'LilleA. Bouaddi · red card
88'LilleH. Igamane (assist: E. Mbappé)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Havre		Lille
14	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	5
43%	Possession	57%
341	Passes	485
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Havre 1.21 · Lille 1.66. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Le Havre 14 · Lille 8; on target 7 and 2.
Lille kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Willy Delajod, France→

3.14

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.7%: “Lille to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.99 for Le Havre, 1.70 for Lille.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (X2 — draw or Lille win).
These values were computed from 1,114 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Havre to win20.6%

Draw25.7%

Lille to win53.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Le Havre lead at half-time18.8%

Level at half-time42.2%

Lille lead at half-time39.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Havre ahead or level61.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Lille ahead81.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1114 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Havre: at least 11Actual: 15
Lille: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Le Havre: at least 3Actual: 6
Lille: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Havre score1.21

Attack: Le Havre score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lille concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lille score1.66

Attack: Lille score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%0–110.7%1–210.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.