Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 14

Lorient–Nice

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'NiceA. Avom (own goal)
31'LorientL. Abergel
45'LorientS. Soumano (assist: K. Kouassi)
53'LorientS. Soumano (assist: B. Meité)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lorient		Nice
18	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
428	Passes	560
364	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lorient 1.44 · Nice 1.47. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Lorient 18 · Nice 9; on target 7 and 2.
Nice kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Romain Lissorgue, France→

5.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.3%: “Lorient to win”. Second comes “Nice to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Lorient, 1.32 for Nice.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,114 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lorient to win40.3%

Draw27.2%

Nice to win32.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Lorient lead at half-time15.8%

Level at half-time39.0%

Nice lead at half-time45.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Lorient ahead or level54.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or Nice ahead84.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1114 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Lorient: at least 10Actual: 7
Nice: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Lorient: at least 4Actual: 3
Nice: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lorient score1.44

Attack: Lorient score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nice's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nice score1.47

Attack: Nice score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lorient's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.6%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.