Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 14

Angers–Lens

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa, Angers

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'LensF. Thauvin (assist: O. Edouard)
74'LensF. Thauvin (assist: S. Baidoo)
76'AngersDjibirin Harouna

Match statistics

Match statistics
Angers		Lens
7	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
2	Corners	8
5	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
425	Passes	514
330	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Angers 1.07 · Lens 1.58. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Angers 7 · Lens 17; on target 5 and 6.
Lens kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Guillaume Paradis, France→

5.60

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.6%: “Lens to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.00 for Angers, 1.82 for Lens.
The highest double chance value is 81.0% (X2 — draw or Lens win).
These values were computed from 1,114 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Angers to win19.0%

Draw24.4%

Lens to win56.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Angers lead at half-time20.5%

Level at half-time45.2%

Lens lead at half-time34.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Angers ahead or level65.8%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Lens ahead79.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1114 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Angers: at least 11Actual: 7
Lens: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Angers: at least 3Actual: 2
Lens: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Angers score1.07

Attack: Angers score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lens's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lens score1.58

Attack: Lens score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Angers's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%1–210.9%0–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.