Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 14

Paris FC–Auxerre

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Paris FCI. Kebbal (penalty)
40'AuxerreS. Diomandé (assist: L. Sinayoko)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris FC		Auxerre
11	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
511	Passes	419
451	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris FC 1.70 · Auxerre 1.08. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Paris FC 11 · Auxerre 11; on target 2 and 3.
Paris FC kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

François Letexier, France→

6.00

yellows per match

0.60

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.9%: “Paris FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Paris FC, 1.04 for Auxerre.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (1X — Paris FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,111 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris FC to win50.9%

Draw26.5%

Auxerre to win22.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Paris FC lead at half-time29.9%

Level at half-time43.1%

Auxerre lead at half-time27.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris FC ahead or level73.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Auxerre ahead70.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1111 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris FC: at least 11Actual: 11
Auxerre: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Paris FC: at least 5Actual: 4
Auxerre: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris FC score1.70

Attack: Paris FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Auxerre's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Auxerre score1.08

Attack: Auxerre score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Paris FC's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.5%1–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.