Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 13

Stade Brestois 29–Metz

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Stade Brestois 29P. Mboup (assist: B. Chardonnet)
6'MetzG. Tsitaishvili (assist: T. Yegbe)
48'Stade Brestois 29K. Doumbia (assist: L. Ajorque)
79'MetzS. Coulibaly (own goal)
90'Stade Brestois 29R. Del Castillo (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Stade Brestois 29		Metz
20	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
516	Passes	406
435	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Stade Brestois 29 1.97 · Metz 1.09. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Stade Brestois 29 20 · Metz 7; on target 7 and 3.
Stade Brestois 29 kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Gael Angoula, France→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.9%: “Stade Brestois 29 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.75 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.07 for Metz.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (1X — Stade Brestois 29 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,105 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Stade Brestois 29 to win52.9%

Draw25.3%

Metz to win21.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Stade Brestois 29 lead at half-time48.0%

Level at half-time38.4%

Metz lead at half-time13.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Stade Brestois 29 ahead or level86.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Metz ahead52.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1105 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Stade Brestois 29: at least 12Actual: 11
Metz: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Stade Brestois 29: at least 4Actual: 6
Metz: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score1.97

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Metz concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Metz score1.09

Attack: Metz score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.8%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.