Ligue 1 · France · Regular Season - 13

Paris Saint Germain–Le Havre

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 20:05
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'Paris Saint GermainLee Kang-In (assist: N. Mendes)
65'Paris Saint GermainJ. Neves
87'Paris Saint GermainB. Barcola (assist: K. Kvaratskhelia)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Le Havre
31	Shots	12
11	Shots on target	4
22	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	8
6	Corners	4
3	Offsides	3
65%	Possession	35%
599	Passes	313
526	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.54 · Le Havre 0.64. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 31 · Le Havre 12; on target 11 and 4.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Mathieu Vernice, France→

7.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.8%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.53 for Paris Saint Germain, 0.66 for Le Havre.
The highest double chance value is 93.5% (1X — Paris Saint Germain win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,103 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win78.8%

Draw14.7%

Le Havre to win6.5%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Paris Saint Germain lead at half-time60.6%

Level at half-time33.0%

Le Havre lead at half-time6.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris Saint Germain ahead or level93.6%

12 — not level at half-time67.0%

X2 — level or Le Havre ahead39.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1103 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris Saint Germain: at least 10Actual: 10
Le Havre: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Paris Saint Germain: at least 5Actual: 6
Le Havre: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.54

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score above the league average (49% more).

Opponent's defence: Le Havre's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Le Havre score0.64

Attack: Le Havre score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.5%3–011.5%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.